Комментарии по рынку Форекс

• The dollar traded mixed against other key currencies Thursday after a report showed US foreclosure filings climbed 71% y/y in Q3 2008. US stocks had a volatile 550-point-range session. A rally in the last half-hour of trading left the Dow industrials 172 points higher. The euro rose, trading near 1.30. Sterling declined as UK retail sales fell. The Canadian dollar strengthened as crude oil rose from a 16-month low as the OPEC president said members had reached a consensus to cut production. The Australian dollar also had a small gain.


• The USD/JPY successfully tested the support from the March 17 low of 95.73 today. The pair recovered earlier losses as risk appetite increased. If the 95.73 support is broken, the pair will likely fall dramatically. The USD/JPY has not traded below 95.73 since 1995’s 82 low.

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

• US initial jobless claims rose a more-than-expected 15,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 478,000 in the week ending October 18, the Labor Department said. The 4-week moving average of new claims fell for the first time in seven weeks, declining 4,500 to 480,250; still, remaining above recessionary levels typically consistent with declines in monthly employment. Continuing claims in the week ending October 11 declined 6,000 to 3,720,000; nevertheless, remaining near 5-year highs. The 4-week moving average of those continuing claims increased 44,250 to 3,680,000. The jobless rate for workers with unemployment insurance was unchanged at 2.8%. Overall, the figures indicate continued severe weakness in the US labor market.


• US house prices declined at a slower pace in August, falling a seasonally-adjusted 0.6% m/m, following a 0.8% m/m drop in July, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index.

• US foreclosure filings rose 71% y/y in Q3 to the highest on record, RealtyTrac reported.


• Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan admitted some mistakes in assumptions on deregulation while rejecting that he is responsible for the “once-in-a-century credit tsunami.” In testimony to the House Government Oversight Committee, Greenspan acknowledged that the crisis “has turned out to be much broader than anything I could have imagined. It has morphed from one gripped by liquidity restraints to one in which fears of insolvency are now paramount.” “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief,” he said. However, Greenspan said he raised concerns as early as 2005 that “the protracted period of underpricing of risk, if history was any guide, would have dire consequences.”


• The Bank of Canada said the global credit crisis will be more “persistent” and widespread than expected, signaling further interest-rate cuts as the Canadian economy heads toward a recession. Canada’s GDP will shrink at a 0.4% annualized rate this quarter, compared with a July estimate of 1.8% growth, the BOC said in a forecast that includes a chart indicating no expansion in Q1 2009. A lack of credit and a global recession will push Canada’s inflation rate to 1.0% in H2 2009, below the BOC’s 2.0% target.

Europe

• Sweden’s Riksbank lowered the repo rate a half-point for the second time in two weeks, to 3.75%, the bank said in a statement and cut its forecasts for growth and inflation. “Demand in the global economy is falling with great force. We forecast a 2009 with quite weak economic growth,” Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves said. The Riksbank cut its growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2008 and 0.2% for 2009, compared with September forecasts of 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. The unemployment rate will rise to 6.2% in 2008, 6.9% in 2009 and 7.6% in 2010, the bank said. Headline inflation will ease to 1.6% in 2009 from 3% in 2008. The bank had previously forecast inflation would rise 3.9% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009.


• Eurozone industrial new orders fell 1.2% m/m in August, following July’s upwardly revised 2.0% m/m increase, Eurostat reported. Industrial new orders fell 6.6% y/y.


• UK retail sales declined 0.4% m/m in September after increasing 1.1% m/m in August, the Office for National Statistics said. Retail sales rose 1.8% y/y in September, the least since February 2006, following August’s 3.3% y/y gain. The figures indicate underlying growth in retail sales continues to slow as the UK slips into a recession.

Asia-Pacific

• Japan’s trade surplus plunged a more-than-expected 94.1% y/y to ¥95.1 billion ($965.7 million) in September, far worse than September 2007’s ¥1.609 trillion ($16.34 billion) surplus, according to the Ministry of Finance. Still, September’s number represents a turnaround from August’s revised ¥327.6 billion trade deficit. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit was ¥33.0 billion in September, following August’s revised ¥155.5 billion deficit.


• Australia’s house affordability index improved to 109.1 in Q3 from 105.3 in Q2, the Housing Industry Association and Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

FX Strategy Update