Комментарии по рынку Форекс

• The dollar, while falling versus the yen, gained against other key currencies Friday. The two major currencies rallied following panic selling of risky assets, funds repatriation into dollars and carry-trade unwinding. We expect further concerted interest-rate cuts by major central banks to counter deflationary forces and assets destruction before a possible global recession turns into a depression. Sterling had its biggest intraday drop in decades after the UK GDP shrank in Q3 2008. The euro fell to the lowest level since 2006 versus the greenback and declined to the lowest since 2002 against the yen. The Australian and Canadian dollars saw further big losses against the dollar and yen as commodity prices dropped. Emerging-market assets and currencies continued their routs on deleveraging and global recession concerns.


• The USD/JPY plunged as deleveraging and forced liquidation were today’s factors in international equity and commodity markets. Hedge funds and other have for years borrowed in the low-yielding yen (and dollar) and bought assets and commodities in high-yielding currencies. According to the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity, the difference in interest is equal to the expected appreciation. However, for years speculators and investors borrowed in yen, bought assets in high-yielding currencies and benefited both from low yen borrowing rates and a depreciating yen, counter to what should be possible according to the UIP. This has come to an end with vengeance as we are now experiencing the revenge of the UIP with forced assets liquidation and carrytrade unwinding. Today the USD/JPY broke important support and plummeted to levels not seen for 13 years. The pair fell about 13% since the beginning of September and the yen was stronger in the crosses.

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

• US existing home sales climbed a more-than-expected 5.5% m/m in September to a 5.18 million annual pace, the highest level in a year, aided by foreclosure-driven declines in prices, following August’s 4.91 million annual rate, data from the National Association of Realtors showed. The median home price in September fell 9.0% y/y to $191,600, the lowest since April 2004. Inventories of homes declined 1.6% m/m at the end of September to 4.27 million available for sale, which represented a 9.9-month supply at the current sales pace, the fewest since February and down from a 10.6-month supply at the end of August. Regionally, existing home sales were mixed: sales increased 2.2% m/m in the South, rose 4.4% m/m in the Midwest and jumped 16.8% m/m in the West, while they declined 1.2% m/m in the Northeast.

• Canada’s consumer-price inflation rose a more-than-expected 3.4% y/y in September mainly due to higher energy and food prices, remaining close to a 5-year high of a 3.5% y/y pace in August, according to data from Statistics Canada. The CPI increased 0.1% m/m in September partly due to rising clothing prices, after declining 0.2% m/m in August. The core CPI, which excludes gasoline and seven other volatile items, accelerated 1.7% y/y and 0.4% m/m in September.


• Canada posted a C$1.75 billion ($1.38 billion) budget deficit in August as revenue from corporate income taxes dropped, compared with a C$131 million gap in August last year, the Finance Department said. The budget surplus for the first five months of the current fiscal year shrank to C$1.16 billion, down from C$6.62 billion a year earlier.

• Germany’s advanced manufacturing PMI reading fell to 43.3 in October from 47.4 in September, indicating manufacturing activity in Germany contracted for the third consecutive month, Markit Economics reported. Germany’s advanced services PMI reading declined to 49.7 in October from 50.2 in September, showing economic activity in the services sector stalled for the first time since January. The figures suggest Germany may slip into a recession in Q3.


• The UK GDP shrank a more-than-expected 0.5% q/q in Q3, the first contraction in 16 years, after stalling in Q2, the Office for National Statistics said. The Q3 GDP grew 0.3% y/y following Q2’s 1.5% y/y growth. The figures signal a looming UK recession since 1991.

Europe

• Europe’s manufacturing and service industries contracted at a record pace in October, according to Markit Economics’ advanced eurozone PMI readings. The composite PMI fell to 44.6 in October, the lowest since the survey began in 1998, from 46.9 in September. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 41.3 in October from 45.0 in September, while the services PMI declined to 46.9 from September’s 48.4.

Asia-Pacific

• Maintaining China’s economic growth rate is the best way to combat the global credit crisis, President Hu Jintao said. “The fundamentals of the Chinese economy have not changed,” Hu said at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) summit. “We must first and foremost run our own affairs well.” China appreciated coordinated measures and pledged to coordinate policy to help cope with the global financial turmoil, Hu said.


• There is a 36% chance the Bank of Japan will cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% from 0.5% by yearend, up from a 3% chance a month ago, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said, using overnight interest-rate swaps.

FX Strategy Update